When it comes to those who bet on sports, the National Basketball Association (NBA) is still among the most popular leagues. Nonetheless, statistics have indicated that most of the activity the NBA generates with the sportsbooks stays on the betting line or spread for the games. If you do not include bets on the “over/under,” which is sometimes referred to as the entire line, as part of your overall NBA betting strategy, you are passing up a fantastic chance to expand your bankroll and lose out on potential winnings.
The fundamental beginning point for handicapping any matchup for a bet on the total line must start with each team’s scoring potential and the average number of points they allow on the opposite end of the court. This is the case regardless of which side of the court you are looking at. Certain teams in the NBA are well-known for scoring a large number of points on a nightly basis, but at the same time, these same teams consistently rank toward the top of the list regarding the number of points allowed on average.
When looking back at the scoring stats for the 2013/2014 regular season, the Los Angeles Clippers topped the league in scoring with an average of 107.9 points per game, but they also allowed an average of 101.0 PPG to their opponents. Although the oddsmakers undoubtedly would have altered their total lines in light of these statistics, the total still went OVER in 44 of their 82 games, equivalent to roughly 54 percent of the time.
The outcomes were even more shocking for those who had bet on the UNDER for the Chicago Bulls. After leading the NBA in the fewest points allowed (91.8) and ranking last in scoring (93.7 PPG), the total failed to go OVER in 48 of 82 games (59 percent of the time). Even when the oddsmakers lowered the entire line for Bulls’ games, most of those games still went UNDER the total.
When anticipating future outcomes, looking at a team’s present play will provide you with far more information than their season scoring averages. Season scoring averages are useful for painting a picture of the big picture. Even the weakest teams in the league will go through stretches when they score more than their average while also playing considerably better on the defensive end. Betting patterns tend to change as the season progresses, but paying careful attention to a team’s current playing form may lead to a winning run on the total line that lasts for many games. This can be accomplished by betting on the total.
In addition to the points scored and surrendered, other data should be considered while betting on the total line. The first two are offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency, which quantify how many points a club scores (on offense) or allows (on defense) per 100 possessions. These statistics go hand in hand with the algorithm that estimates how many controls a team averages throughout a game, which measures a team’s overall speed. Combined, a team’s offensive efficiency and tempo often serve as a solid indicator of the number of points it may score compared to the defensive efficiency of its opponent.
In addition to relevant ailments, a team’s exhaustion level, and its general drive, several additional elements are considered when judging NBA totals. A coach’s strategy for a game may be heavily influenced by the severity of his team’s injuries. If a team’s leading scorer cannot participate, the head coach may attempt to compensate for the scoring deficit by implementing a new defensive plan. This would help to maintain a low score. He may even go in a completely another path by attempting to fill the vacancy with bench players who have the potential to spark the game up.
While traveling for a long period or competing in a number of games in a short period, fatigue will become a factor. As you enter the second part of the regular season, you must be mindful that certain teams may intentionally lose games by giving up on their defensive responsibilities. A matchup of unequal skill levels may result in high-scoring routes.
Regarding NBA total handicapping, the last piece of advice that can be given is to compile a comprehensive profile of each team, considering all of the aspects discussed before, for both their home and away games. The arena in which the game is played will significantly affect the number of points scored since the disparity between the two might be as great as night and day for certain NBA teams.
